2020 Value of Jobs Housing Affordability

Apartment Production  //  Cost-Burdened Households  //  Policy Impacts  //  Homeless & Affordability  //  Why this Matters

This report produced by the Portland Business Alliance, 进一步关注大波特兰地区的住房负担能力. From the dark years of the recession, 我们的“就业价值”报告反复指出,住房供应不足如何影响人们的购买力.

The demand for housing has outpaced new supply, and prices of homes and rents have increased, most acutely in the greater Portland region.


Housing Affordability report (pdf)

2020 State of the Economy report (pdf) 

Unfortunately, in our region, 最新数据显示,已经有明显迹象表明,住房生产正在下降. We needed to build 103,000 new units this decade to keep pace with population demand, but only built 79,500. With a projected pipeline of 2,500 new homes expected to be finished in 2022, 我们必须设法满足本地区对住房的需求. 

State and local policy makers are taking notice. 许多国家在全国率先采取大胆的新政策措施,旨在增加住房生产,使所有收入水平的家庭都能负担得起. 但这些政策的实施将需要数年时间,并需要与公共和私营部门持续合作.



Report at a glance

Apartment Production

In this building cycle, 该地区的公寓建设主要发生在波特兰市, 自2013年以来,该市在建房屋数量超过了该地区其他地区的总和. See Figure 1.

跟踪在建单位很重要,因为它们是住房供应的领先指标. Apartment buildings commonly take 24 months to complete. 通过评估目前在建的房屋数量,可以估算出未来两年内将完成的房屋数量.

2016年底,建筑活动大幅增加. This lasted through the peak of the cycle in mid-2018. The increase was fueled by many factors, including: rising rents; rising population and more people moving here; rising incomes; and developers looking to implement projects prior to inclusionary housing requirements (in the city of Portland only).

额外建设活动的好处创造了公寓的历史产量, 这导致了整个地区租金增长放缓. 从历史上看,租金和收入是一致的,大多数公寓的价格基本上都是可以承受的. In 2012, 中等家庭收入(MFI)的60%至70%的家庭可以负担得起一套普通公寓。.

Cost-burdened households

住房负担能力假设不应超过总收入的30%用于住房. Today, that is not the case. 该地区近一半的租房家庭负担沉重(将超过30%的总收入用于住房).

Beginning in 2012, rents in the city of Portland increased faster than incomes, 导致在2016年和2017年,只有获得MFI 100%的家庭才能负担得起一居室公寓. See Figure 2.

Broad levels of housing affordability peaked in 2017. 对于该地区的许多家庭来说,收入的增长开始快于房租的增长. The number of apartments built slowed down. 当平均收入以每年8%到9%的速度增长时,租金的增长速度却在放缓. 因此,今天,一个家庭收入为MFI的90%,现在可以负担得起一套普通公寓.

Homelessness and Affordability

Housing affordability and homelessness are linked. 一笔意外支出就可能使一个家庭无力支付房租. 许多家庭收入不到MFI的80%,他们的总收入的一半以上都花在住房上, 几乎没有留给交通等其他基本需求, child care and food.

Despite the high cost of rent in the region, 不断增长的收入使一些家庭能够为首付存钱,并考虑买房. But if a household is earning $89,700 (100% of MFI), they may still be priced out of many neighborhoods.

Today, 家庭收入为100%小额信贷融资,并预期将30%的收入用于住房, may be able to afford a home priced at $385,000. 现实情况是,我们地区中部地区的平均房价超过了这个水平. Even if a household is able to save 20% for a down payment, they may struggle to find an affordable home, near their job. 
See Figure 4.


Policy impacts of housing production

Bold new policy measures, 旨在增加所有收入水平的家庭都能负担得起的住房生产, are taking shape.

In the Portland region, 我们才刚刚开始了解2001年众议院法案的影响(HB 2001), 在2019年俄勒冈州议会的最后几天通过,并于2019年8月由州长布朗签署成为法律. 这项具有里程碑意义的立法的特点是在全州范围内禁止单独家庭的排外分区. It does not ban single-family detached housing, but requires cities with a population greater than 10,在城市增长边界内,允许在目前区划为独户住宅的地区建造复式住宅. It goes further for cities with populations above 25,000 and requires the permitted use of duplex, triplex, quadplex, and detached cottage clusters. As part of HB 2001, 国家将制定一个标准的土地使用规范,用于定义不同类型的住房可以被允许的地方. If a local jurisdiction does not implement their own code, 他们会根据自己的人口规模默认采用该州的法规.

It is unclear exactly how Oregon’s code will be written, 以及任何地方司法机关将如何设计自己的政策,以符合立法. 波特兰的住宅填充物项目(RIP)是许多潜在的当地实施个人校准政策的努力中的第一个. The city estimates there is the potential to produce up to 24,000 units over 20 years under RIP (1,200 units a year average). 很明显,要求街边停车和最大潜在单元大小等参数将影响市场可行性和该地区新建建筑的类型. 这张地图显示了一个草图模型的结果,该模型是为了了解该地区哪里的市场需求最大而创建的. See Figure 3.

Why this matters

整个大波特兰地区的住房生产正在逐渐减少. Construction costs are up by more than 20%. Population in the region has grown 11% since 2010. In order to sustain a resilient economy, 我们需要找到建造新住房的方法,使其在经济扩张结束后持续下去,直至经济衰退. 

An aggressive housing supply push will serve two purposes. It puts downward pressure on rents in an overpriced market, and it supports thousands of middle-income jobs. 

我们的住房和无家可归危机的规模需要大胆的解决方案, community-wide collaboration, 采取正确行动的政治意愿和历史领导力, not what is easy.

Value of Jobs coalition partners